Kenya is expected to experience increased political instability and civil unrest in 2026, according to a new global security report.
While economic conditions in the country show signs of improvement, security experts warn that political tensions could pose serious challenges for businesses, investors, and ordinary citizens in the coming year.
The World Security Report by global security firm G4S ranks political instability and civil unrest as the top security threats facing Kenya in 2026.
The report shows that 45 percent of security leaders believe political instability will be a major risk, while 43 percent point to civil unrest. These figures are the highest recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the seriousness of the situation.
One of the key reasons for this concern is the impact of the Gen Z–led protests that took place in 2024 and 2025. These protests, which were largely driven by dissatisfaction with government policies and the cost of living, have left a lasting mark on the country’s political environment.
According to G4S Kenya Managing Director Laurence Okelo, the issues that led to those protests have not fully disappeared. As a result, they continue to influence security planning.
Another major factor is the upcoming 2027 general election. Historically, Kenya tends to experience rising political temperatures 12 to 18 months before elections.
During this period, political activity increases, public debates become more heated, and protests are likely to occur. Security experts say this pattern explains why businesses and investors are already preparing for possible unrest in 2026
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The report shows that political tension is already affecting businesses. About 21 percent of Kenyan companies say they expect protests or demonstrations to disrupt their operations this year. The retail and hospitality sectors are expected to be the most affected, as they rely heavily on public movement and consumer confidence.
Any disruption, such as demonstrations or clashes with police, can lead to temporary closures and loss of income.
Despite these concerns, there is some positive news on the economic front. Fears about economic instability are expected to decline in 2026. The report shows that concern over economic risks has fallen from 52 percent in 2024 to 41 percent this year.
This improvement is linked to stabilising exchange rates, lower interest rates, and steady inflation. These factors suggest that Kenya’s economy is slowly recovering compared to the challenges faced 12 to 18 months ago.
However, financial pressure continues to create other risks. Fraud has emerged as the leading external threat to businesses, largely driven by economic stress. Companies are being forced to deal with increased cases of financial crime, even as the broader economy shows signs of stability.
Security-related challenges come at a high cost. Nearly half of the firms surveyed in Kenya reported losing revenue due to security incidents. Many businesses have also experienced higher insurance premiums as a result of increased risk.
To respond to these challenges, 79 percent of Kenyan companies plan to increase their spending on physical security. This includes investing in new technology, conducting detailed risk assessments, and improving compliance with regulations.
The findings of the report are based on a survey of more than 2,300 chief security officers worldwide, including 58 from Kenya. It also includes insights from major institutional investors managing over one trillion dollars in assets.
Overall, the report paints a picture of a country where economic conditions are slowly improving, but political uncertainty remains a major concern.
As Kenya moves closer to the 2027 elections, businesses and investors are staying alert, investing in security, and strengthening their risk plans to protect operations, workers, and confidence in the market.
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